Real
Madrid v Barcelona: A bumpy ride ahead for Xavi's Barca?
Barcelona are going
into Sunday's Clasico at the Santiago Bernabeu level on points with Real Madrid
at the top of La Liga and having conceded just one league goal all season.
Eyebrows were raised when the club splashed
145m euros in the summer on players, despite well-documented financial
difficulties, but at first glance the numbers would suggest the gamble was
paying off on the pitch.
Statistics in football should sometimes be
taken with a pinch of salt.
Their past six La Liga games, in which they
have not conceded at all, have been against the likes of Real Valladolid,
Cadiz, Elche and Real Mallorca - sides not known for their goalscoring prowess.
The stats will also not tell you that on
numerous occasions only the stunning form of goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen
has kept the opposition at bay.
It's a different story when the bigger boys
come to the party, though, and especially when you are left without your
first-choice defenders to take them on.
This season, Barcelona have already conceded
seven goals in four Champions League matches, losing two, drawing one and
winning one.
Wednesday’s pulsating 3-3 draw against Inter
Milan loved by the neutral but loathed by Barcelona coach Xavi, probably
means they will very soon have to start planning their Europa League campaign.
Inter only need to beat a Viktoria Plzen who
have so far conceded 16 goals in four matches to ensure Barcelona do not
qualify for the knockout stages of the Champions League for the second year in
a row.
Next up is the Clasico, and Real Madrid, who
in the 'big boy' contests are right up there with the biggest of them all.
If Barcelona lose against Real, it is going to
be mayhem.
Bad news for Barcelona
The two sides are neck and neck at the top of the table after an
unbeaten start to a season that has seen them both drop just two points from a
possible 24.
Something's got to give and the clues as to where that is going
to happen were there for all to see in their recent Champions League games.
Real Madrid travelled to Warsaw to face Shakhtar Donetsk and
needed a last-gasp header from Antonio Rudiger to snatch a point.
Travelling to Poland with nine points already banked, there may
well have been a slight element of complacency in their performance, as well as
some squad rotation.
In Barcelona, Xavi rallied the forces, describing the game as a
"cup final" and for the first 45 minutes everything looked like it
might go to plan.
There was pressure high up the pitch, lots of crosses, shots
from outside the box and players were finding each other between the lines.
All was well, certainly until half-time. What could possibly go
wrong?
Well, as it turned out, just about everything really. They
conceded early in the second half and then the floodgates opened.
From the moment Gerard Pique forgot to look around to the Inter
attackers and the first goal was conceded, the game morphed from a measured,
planned approach to box-to-box football. Pique, Eric Garcia and Marcos Alonso
were never going to be able to deal with that.
The game was played by Barcelona as if there was one minute
left. The match became a lottery and the best you can say is that at least two saves
by Ter Stegen near the end mean that there is still the slimmest of chances
going into the next matchday.
So what we have now is a Barcelona that can only do what Xavi
wants for 45 minutes, a team that is fine until things become difficult and
then find themselves unable to cope. A team that has two ways to think about
what needs doing - Xavi wants control but the players prefer to attack quickly.
Clearly Xavi is no further than at stage one of this new
educational process at the Nou Camp, which is very bad news when you are about
to face a Real Madrid side that graduated with honours years ago and who know
how to raise the levels when it really matters.
So what are the key elements of this Sunday's Clasico?
Ter Stegen has helped to blunt the sharp reality of what is
happening at the moment and without him it's difficult to imagine where the
club would be.
No-one is sure who will be at the other end, with Thibaut
Courtois out for the past three games with a back injury and still unable to
train.
Andriy Lunin has filled in for the Belgian with distinction yet
somehow cannot quite inspire that match-winning, difference-making confidence
that Courtois does. But then - apart perhaps from his opponent at the other end
- who could?
Forget just being a goalkeeper - Courtois is one of the most
influential players this season.
What about the situation in defence?
The Champions League has shown us that this is a Barcelona side
that does not adjust sufficiently to the counter-attacks of its opponents. When
they control the game, they are able to defend as a team, but when they revert
to box-to-box football they are there for the taking.
Expect Real Madrid to occasionally defend high but concern
themselves mainly with waiting for Barcelona to lose possession and
counter-attack them as only they know how.
Karim Benzema, Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, Federico Valverde or
whoever happens to be playing is a frightening prospect for this
brittle-looking Barcelona side because Real Madrid are one of the best in the
world in that aspect of the game.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, have in defence Eder Militao, who missed
Tuesday's Champions League match but who should be fit for the Clasico. He is
one of the best centre-backs around.
He is strong, physical, has fantastic anticipation, is fast,
dangerous in set-pieces and resolute in defence and, while Barcelona missing
defenders has cost them dear, Real Madrid have either David Alaba or Nacho to
seamlessly replace the injured Rudiger.
Is Rodrygo the new Benzema?
Rodrygo is good but he is
not on the level of Karim Benzema - not yet, not by a long chalk. But at least
Real Madrid know that in him they have someone that can take on the role of the
France striker.
He links well with his team-mates, can drag defenders away, can
drop deep sometimes and can score goals. Against Atletico Madrid just before
the international break, he was far and away the best player.
He can be trusted to play wide or to identify those places where
he is going to create the most problems for his opponent, including sometimes
the central position normally occupied by Benzema.
The key on Sunday could well be in midfield and it's safe to
assume that Real manager Carlo Ancelotti isn't about to repeat the perverse
decision he took in last year's Clasico, when he decided to play Luka Modric as
a false nine and ended up the wrong side of a 4-0 thumping.
Ancelotti will know better than anyone that playing with fast
transitions fundamentally requires a midfield that holds together when under
attack and then moves with pace.
This is now a Madrid side with a very strong structure and a
team where everyone knows what what everyone else's role is. They have had it
for a long time now and it is second nature to them.
Barcelona, on the other hand, are doing it because it is what
they have been instructed to do.
Who will get the blame at
Barca?
For Barcelona, Sunday's Clasico could be the next learning curve
as they strive to find their identity. It could be a bumpy ride.
If it goes pear-shaped in the not too distant future the first
to be criticised will be the players, especially the seasoned veterans such as
Pique and Sergio Busquets who aren't performing at their best. Plenty of people
have started saying they are not up to playing at this level any more.
Then, depending on what happens on Sunday, next in line will be
the manager who will be swiftly accused of not getting the best out of a squad
that was improved with the help of around 145m euros in the summer.
And then finally, if we continue along this road, president Joan Laporta will be questioned by many for having sold off parts of the club in order to try to finance this new-look Barcelona.
Laporta has opted to spend most of money available to assemble a strong squad, trusting that success on the pitch will bring money and partners, which will help pay wages and transfer fees in the future, which will bring success, which will bring top players, and so on.
But without getting the results, and maybe even titles, that
will provide the prestige needed to keep bringing in money to pay debts that
total around 1bn euros, the heat will only grow on Laporta.
These are delicate times at the Nou Camp.
