T20 World Cup: England well placed, but wary of the unknown
Former US defence
secretary Donald Rumsfeld once spoke of "known knowns, known unknowns and
unknown unknowns".
As England concluded the serious part of their
preparation for the T20 World Cup in wet Canberra, ending as impressive 2-0
series victors over hosts and defending champions Australia, they have
their own knowns, unknowns and unknown unknowns.
Even without the out-of-form Jason Roy and
injured Jonny Bairstow, England know they have the batting power to match any
other team in the tournament.
Conversely, they will be aware death bowling
has proved their undoing in the last two T20 World Cups - the final over of the
final in 2016 and the end of the semi-final against New Zealand 12 months ago.
It looks like Sam Curran is being primed to
bowl in those pressurised moments, with promising results.
England will also be under no illusions about
the task of navigating their way through the draw, of which they have landed on
the tougher side.
A group containing the Aussies, New Zealand
and Afghanistan already looks tricky, before the likely prospect of being
joined by resurgent Asia Cup winners Sri Lanka (under former England coach
Chris Silverwood) and one of West Indies, Ireland, Scotland or Zimbabwe.
Still, failing to reach the semi-finals would
be a classed as a huge failure, and to guard against that head coach Matthew
Mott has made a couple of savvy appointments to his backroom in fellow
Australians David Saker and Mike Hussey.
Saker was the bowling coach that helped
mastermind the 2010-11 Ashes success, while legendary batter Hussey needs no
introduction. From Mr Cricket to Mr England.
It is with Mott where England's unknowns
begin. This will be their first tournament under his stewardship, after a
difficult start to his reign in the home summer. The 4-3 series win with a
half-strength team in Pakistan was a good result, the victory over Australia
even better.
Mott already has the boost of a 2022 World Cup
winners' medal, too, having taken the Australia women to 50-over success in
April.
Buttler also takes the reins in a world event
for the first time and it will be fascinating to see how England cope without
the calm authority of retired former skipper Eoin Morgan.
Whereas Morgan often had the benefit of a
settled side and a priority placed on the importance of the white-ball team,
Buttler will be in no doubt that Test cricket is currently England's prime
focus.
It means England's first-choice T20 side has
only been assembled at the very last minute, partly because multi-format
players were rested for limited-overs matches during the summer, but also
because a treatment room full of fast bowlers has just begun to empty.
It is a huge boost for England to have Chris
Woakes, Chris Jordan and, in particular, Mark Wood available, but there will be
a doubt over how much they have to nurse all three - especially the lethal
Wood, who on current form is the fastest bowler in the world. The absence of
Jofra Archer remains keenly felt.
Of less obvious, but perhaps greater, concern
is the form of Adil Rashid. The leg-spinner has arguably been even more
important than the batting superstars during England's white-ball supremacy,
but he has endured a poor spell.
Both his economy and average in 2022 are worse
than any other year since 2009, his first in international cricket.
And then there is the issue of Stokes, who has
returned to the England T20 side for the first time since the beginning of
2021. In his 18 months away for reasons of fitness, mental health and being
rested, the questions over how best to utilise the Test captain in the shortest
form have grown louder.
First and foremost, Stokes is Stokes - one of
the most extraordinary cricketers of his generation, capable of salvaging the
most hopeless situation single-handedly. As Buttler said, big moments seem to
find him.
Thanks to Carlos Brathwaite, Stokes has the
motivation of unfinished business with the T20 World Cup and he has the
pedigree of once being named the Most Valuable Player in the Indian Premier
League.
But Stokes has played only three T20 matches
of any kind since July last year. As an example, Liam Livingstone has featured
in 59.
Even Superman can get rusty if he hasn't saved
the world in a while. The villains get more sophisticated, the problems more
complex, rescues more impossible.
For now, England should continue to back
Stokes, not just for the impact he can make with bat, ball and in the field,
but because his mere presence lifts his own team and strikes fear into the
opposition.
However, including Stokes leads to a decision
on the right balance of the XI. If England want all of Stokes, Livingstone and
Moeen Ali in the same side, they would either have to leave out a batter in
Harry Brook, or go with only four frontline bowlers.
The latter would probably be the favoured
option, given the trio of all-rounders are more than good enough to at least
bowl the overs of a fifth bowler, and probably more.
Still, it is worth England keeping in mind
that, in general, batters win matches, whereas bowlers win tournaments. They
may need to switch to a five-strong frontline attack.
At least Buttler, Mott and the rest will be
aware of these pending problems. It is the danger of the unknown unknowns,
thrown up more frequently in T20 World Cups than any other tournament, that
could be the biggest threat to England becoming simultaneous champions in the
two limited-overs formats.
Last year, in the United Arab Emirates,
England were probably the strongest team in the competition, only to be
derailed by injuries and a crucial toss in the semi-final against New Zealand.
Six years ago they had one hand on the trophy
until Brathwaite's four final-over sixes off the bowling of the shattered Stokes.
The T20 World Cup has a history of producing a
winner from nowhere. Unlike its marathon 50-over brother, the 20-over
tournament is a sprint where even your start doesn't matter so long as you
finish well.
In 2010, an England team thrown together at the
last minute could have been eliminated by Ireland had it not rained in Guyana,
but went on to lift the trophy.
Four years later an unfancied Sri Lanka
stunned the might of India in the final, and last year Australia recovered from
a humbling by England in the group stage to become world champions.
England know what they know and what they
don't know.
It is the unknown unknowns which makes the T20
World Cup so dangerous, thrilling and unpredictable.
