World Cup 2022: Opta predicts each country's chances of winning
Reigning champions France are third favourites, according to
Opta, with a 13% chance of retaining their title in Qatar
Brazil haven't won the
World Cup since 2002 but there is a strong chance Qatar 2022 could be their
year.
Using Stats Perform's artificial intelligence
World Cup prediction model, the South Americans have emerged as the favourites
to lift the trophy for a record extending sixth time. But how well are England
and Wales going to perform?
To achieve a more well-rounded picture of who
will win the 2022 World Cup, the prediction model estimates the probability of
each match outcome - win, draw or loss - by using betting market odds and Stats
Perform's team rankings.
The odds and rankings are based on historical
and recent team performances. The model then considers opponent strength and
the difficulty of their path to the final by using match outcome probabilities,
taking into account the composition of the groups and seedings into the
knockout stages.
Brazil emerge with the
highest probability of winning. The five-time winners, who are overall
favourites to win, have a 16% chance of lifting the trophy according to the
model, and as the overall favourites for the tournament, are also the team with
the highest probability of reaching the final (25%).
Just behind five-time winners Brazil, it is Argentina who
have the second-highest probability of winning this year's World Cup. Lionel
Scaloni's side, who are the favourites in Group C, have a 13% chance of going
on to scoop the trophy this year.
Rounding out the top five contenders at the 2022 World Cup are France (12%), Spain (9%)
and England (9%).
Despite being the third overall favourites to win the
tournament, it is France who in fact have the highest probability of qualifying
for the knockout stages of the tournament (91%), before the overall favourites Brazil
(89%).
Croatia, who were beaten
finalists in 2018, look unlikely to repeat that performance. Zlatko Dalic's
side have just a 4% chance of making it back to the final this year, with 11
other teams in the tournament holding a higher probability of doing so.
What are England &
Wales' chances?
|
Percentages chances for teams in Group B |
|||||||||
|
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Last-16 |
QF |
SF |
Final |
Winner |
|
England |
62.9 |
22.9 |
10.3 |
4.0 |
85.7 |
56.0 |
30.9 |
17.0 |
8.7 |
|
USA |
17.0 |
30.1 |
29.4 |
23.4 |
47.1 |
19.4 |
6.6 |
2.2 |
0.7 |
|
Wales |
13.9 |
28.4 |
31.3 |
26.5 |
42.2 |
16.9 |
5.5 |
1.8 |
0.6 |
|
Iran |
6.3 |
18.6 |
28.9 |
46.2 |
24.9 |
8.5 |
2.4 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
|
Data
provided by Opta/Stats Perform (the numbers have been rounded up or down to
one decimal place) |
|||||||||
The United Kingdom will be represented by two teams for the
first time since the 1998 World Cup, with England and Wales drawn together in
Group B.
According to the model, England have a 60% chance of topping the group and
the fifth-best chance of winning the tournament overall (9%). Gareth
Southgate's side are highly fancied to at least make the quarter-finals. Their
probability of reaching the last eight is 56% - the third-highest percentage
chance of any country at the World Cup.
The prospect of both British teams making the knockout stages is
one to watch. Wales' showdown with the United States looks to be
key to their chances of making it out of Group B. They have been given a 41%
chance of progressing to the last 16, with the USA at a slightly higher 45%.
