World Cup 2022: What the stats tell us might happen in Qatar in November and December
What can previous World Cups tell us about what to expect in
Qatar?
Is this year's World Cup tougher? Should teams who qualified
through the play-offs be written off now? Does playing in Asia suit certain
countries?
We look at these factors - as well as many others - to see which
teams could be well placed for a successful World Cup.
There have been six
previous tournaments having the same format of 32 teams sorted into eight
groups of four and it is these six tournaments that have provided 384 games to
look at and see if any patterns emerge.
In the analysis below we
will be looking at these six tournaments - from 1998-2018 - unless otherwise
noted.
How much impact does
location have on the performance of travelling teams?
In the past three tournaments to be played in Europe, there were
European nations filling 10 of the 16 knockout places. When the finals have
taken place outside Europe this figure drops to an average of seven.
South American teams benefit the most from this drop, while
twice the number of Asian teams reach the knock-outs when the finals aren't in
Europe.
Is there a link between
qualifying and how far teams progress in the finals?
Five of the past six World Cup winners were European - and with
the exception of 1998 champions France, who made that tournament automatically
as hosts, all had excellent qualifying campaigns.
The other four champions - Italy in 2006, Spain in 2010, Germany
in 2014 and France in 2018 - either went unbeaten or lost only once in 10
qualifying games. These win percentages (with draws counting half a win) were
80% and above.
In qualification for this year's event, a whole host of European
nations have met the 80% threshold: Denmark (95%), England and Germany (90%),
Serbia and Belgium (87.5%), Spain, Switzerland and France (all 81.3%) and
Croatia and the Netherlands (both 80%).
How 'strong' is this
year's line-up based on world rankings compared to earlier tournaments?
Using the Fifa world ranking of teams at the start of a
tournament, we can get a feel for how competitive a tournament could be. Here
are the rankings spreads for the 32 teams for each tournament:
|
Ranking spread |
|
|
1998 |
1-74 |
|
2002 |
1-50 |
|
2006 |
1-61 |
|
2010 |
1-105 |
|
2014 |
1-62 |
|
2018 |
1-67 |
|
2022 |
1-61 |
Because of Fifa rules dictating the number of teams from each
continent, there are teams not at the finals that rank higher than some that
are.
The most obvious absentees this time are Italy - sixth in the
world - but Colombia (17), Peru (23), Sweden (25), Ukraine (27), Chile (29) and
Nigeria (32) would all have been involved if world rankings decided
qualification irrespective of location.
While seven lower-ranked teams taking part this time might seem
like a large proportion, it is actually the lowest number during the 32-team
era. Some finals have had as many as 11 teams from outside the top 32.
So this time it is a tough tournament to succeed in.
And the combined rankings suggest England and Wales are in the
toughest group in Qatar - it's the only one where every team are in the world's
top 20 as of 30 October.
|
2022 World Cup groups and world rankings (as at
30 October) |
|
A
- Netherlands (8), Senegal (18), Ecuador (44), Qatar (50) |
|
B
- England (5), USA (16), Wales (19), Iran (20) |
|
C
- Argentina (3), Mexico (13), Poland (26), Saudi Arabia (51) |
|
D
- France (4), Denmark (10), Tunisia (30), Australia (38) |
|
E
- Spain (7), Germany (11), Japan (24), Costa Rica (31) |
|
F
- Belgium (2), Croatia (12), Morocco (22), Canada (41) |
|
G
- Brazil (1), Switzerland (15), Serbia (21), Cameroon (43) |
|
H
- Portugal (9), Uruguay (14), South Korea (28), Ghana (61) |
How well do play-off
winners usually do?
Wales, in their first tournament for 64 years, qualified through
the European play-offs along with Poland and Portugal.
At first glance it might seem to be a back-door route - but
recent history shows the teams who qualify that way can make a major impact.
When comparing European teams, 67% of play-off qualifiers reach
the knockout stages, compared with only 57% of teams that qualify directly.
Two of the past six World Cup finals have featured European
teams that got in via the play-offs -Germany in 2002 and Croatia in 2018. In
addition, Croatia (1998) and Turkey (2002) got to the final four and a further
three play-off sides reached the quarter-finals.
Why do defending champions struggle?
Since the 1990s, World Cup holders have won a grand total of one
knockout match in five tournaments, when Brazil beat Ghana in 2006. In fact the
cup hasn't been retained since 1962 and in the 14 tournaments since, only two
holders have gone beyond the quarter-finals.
The holders' troubles often start with match one. In the 12
tournaments ince England won their opening game against Romania in 1970, only
three defending champions have opened with a win. And four of the past five
defending champions haven't even got out of their group.
Why? Well, four years is a long time in football. On average,
only 50% of players who start a final for the winners will start the first
group game of the next tournament.
Italy fielded only three members of their starting line-up from
the 2006 final when they began their defence with a draw against Paraguay in
2010.
Italy won the World Cup in 2006 but four years later drew 1-1 with
Paraguay in their first match and failed to win a game at the 2010 event,
finishing bottom of their group
How many times does a lower-ranked team cause an upset?
If you expect the top two ranked teams always to emerge from
each group, you'll be surprised.
It's normal for six of the 16 knockout places to be taken by
teams that were the third and fourth-ranked teams in their respective groups.
That is an upset rate of 32%. Over these same six tournaments, the knockout
games have been won by 34% of the lower-ranked teams.
|
Biggest upsets in World Cup knockout matches -
according to the Fifa rankings |
|||
|
Year |
Winner
(rank) |
Loser
(rank) |
Difference |
|
2002 |
South
Korea (40) |
Italy
(6) |
34
places |
|
2002 |
Senegal
(42) |
Sweden
(19) |
23
places |
|
2002 |
South
Korea (40) |
Spain
(8) |
32
places |
|
2018 |
Russia
(70) |
Spain
(10) |
60
places |
Three of the four biggest upsets have been caused by the hosts -
twice via penalties and once with a golden goal.
Whatever happens over the next five weeks, there are likely to
be plenty more shocks, drama and controversy ahead.
