T20 World Cup permutations: What does everyone need to progress to semi-finals?

 

ICC Men's T20 World Cup
Hosts: Australia Dates: 16 October-13 November
Coverage: Ball-by-ball Test Match Special commentary of every game on BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra, BBC Sounds and the BBC Sport website and app. Live text commentaries and in-play videos on selected games.

The Super 12 stage of the Men's T20 World Cup is set for a thrilling climax with all to play for as we enter the final round of matches.

The top two from each group will qualify for the semi-finals, with 11 of the 12 sides still mathematically in with a chance of reaching the last four.

With a number of teams likely to end level on points, net run-rate could decide who progresses and who is getting the next flight home.

But what are the permutations? And how do you calculate net run-rate?

BBC Sport has been crunching the numbers to find out...

Group 1

Remaining fixtures (all times GMT): Friday, 4 Nov: Ireland v New Zealand (04:00), Australia v Afghanistan (08:00). Saturday, 5 Nov: Sri Lanka v England (08:00).

New Zealand are in a good position to progress to the last four because of their superior net run-rate. Victory over Ireland in their final game will more than likely guarantee their progress as a result, because England and Australia would both need large-margin victories for the Kiwis to drop out.

England went back into the top two with a 20-run win over New Zealand on Tuesday. A win over Sri Lanka would practically guarantee England's progress because their net run-rate is significantly better than Australia's at the moment. But it could come down to a three-way tussle between England, Australia and New Zealand. Jos Buttler's side have the advantage of playing last in the group so they will know exactly what they need to qualify.

Australia moved into the top two with a 42-run win over Ireland on Monday, but were displaced by England on Tuesday. They need to beat Afghanistan in their final game and by a healthy margin. Even a victory in that game could see them eliminated because their net run-rate is currently inferior to New Zealand and England.

Sri Lanka need to beat England and hope that Afghanistan beat Australia in their final game to go through.

Ireland's hopes of reaching the last four are all-but over now. Wins for England and Sri Lanka on Tuesday mean that if the game between those two on Saturday is played then Ireland won't be able to catch either.

Afghanistan are no longer able to qualify after losing to Sri Lanka.

Group 2

Remaining fixtures (all times GMT): Wednesday, 2 Nov: Zimbabwe v Netherlands (04:00), India v Bangladesh (08:00). Thursday, 3 Nov: Pakistan v South Africa (08:00). Sunday, 6 Nov: South Africa v Netherlands (00:00), Pakistan v Bangladesh (04:00), Zimbabwe v India (08:00).

South Africa's victory over India on Sunday put them in pole position to reach the final four. A win in one of their two remaining games would all-but guarantee their progress because only one of India and Bangladesh, plus potentially Zimbabwe, could match a seven-point tally.

India are also in a strong position and know that wins against Bangladesh and Zimbabwe would see them through. A defeat against the former in particular would put their progress in doubt though.

Bangladesh are similar and know that two wins sees them through. A win against India on Wednesday would put them into the top two, but they could miss out on net run-rate if they lose their final game.

Zimbabwe can still make the top two, but will need to beat the Netherlands and India to stand any chance because of the other fixtures that remain.

Pakistan can also still progress but need to win their remaining two games and hope numerous other results go in their favour. Even then they will be relying on net run-rate.

Netherlands are out after losing their first three games.

How is net run-rate calculated?

Run-rate is the average number of runs scored per over by a team in their entire innings - so, for example, a score of 160 off 20 overs equals eight runs per over.

Net run-rate is calculated by subtracting the opposition's run-rate from the other team's run-rate.

The winning side will therefore have a positive net run-rate, and the losers a negative net run-rate.

In a tournament, net run-rate is worked out by taking the average runs per over scored by that team in each game and subtracting the average runs per over scored against them in each game.

If a team is bowled out inside their allotted overs, their run-rate is calculated by dividing the runs by the maximum overs they could have batted - 20 overs in the case of this tournament.